saaty

Saaty全名Thomas L. Saaty，中文名薩蒂，男，1926年7月18日出生，美國國家工程院院士，賓夕法尼亞大學沃頓商學院教授，匹茲堡大學傑出教授，層次分析法（AHP）和網路程式法（ANP）創始人。2017年8月14日在美國匹茲堡逝世，享年91歲。

基本介紹

• 中文名：薩蒂
• 外文名：Thomas L. Saaty
• 國籍：美國
• 出生日期：1926年7月18日 
• 逝世日期：2017年8月14日 
• 職業：美國國家工程院院士
• 畢業院校：耶魯大學 
• 主要成就：層次分析法（AHP）、網路程式法（ANP）和神經網路分析法創始人 

個人介紹

1948年獲哥倫比亞聯合學院學士學位

1949年獲美國天主教大學物理學碩士學位

1951年獲耶魯大學數學碩士學位

1953年獲耶魯大學數學專業博士學位

成就

在決策科學最傑出貢獻的是創立了層次分析法（AHP）理論及其推廣方法——網路程式法（ANP）理論，發展了考慮依賴和反饋決策的ANP數學理論，構建了基於利益、機會、成本和風險的決策模式。是當今決策科學領域屈指可數的大師級人物。

層次分析法簡介

層次分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process簡稱AHP)是Saaty教授於70年代初期提出的，AHP是對定性問題進行定量分析的一種簡便、靈活而又實用的多準則決策方法。它的特點是把複雜問題中的各種因素通過劃分為相互聯繫的有序層次，使之條理化，根據對一定客觀現實的主觀判斷結構(主要是兩兩比較)把專家意見和分析者的客觀判斷結果直接而有效地結合起來，將一層次元素兩兩比較的重要性進行定量描述。而後，利用數學方法計算反映每一層次元素的相對重要性次序的權值，通過所有層次之間的總排序計算所有元素的相對權重並進行排序。該方法自1982年被介紹到我國以來，以其定性與定量相結合地處理各種決策因素的特點，以及其系統靈活簡潔的優點，迅速地在我國社會經濟各個領域內，如能源系統分析、城市規劃、經濟管理、科研評價等，得到了廣泛的重視和套用。

用AHP分析問題大體要經過以下五個步驟：(1)建立層次結構模型；(2)構造判斷矩陣；(3)層次單排序；(4)層次總排序；(5)一致性檢驗。其中後三個步驟在整個過程中需要逐層地進行。

1.建立層次結構模型

運用AHP進行系統分析，首先要將所包含的因素分組，每一組作為一個層次，按照最高層、若干有關的中間層和最低層的形式排列起來。 對於決策問題，通常可以將其劃分成層次結構模型。

其中：

最高層：表示解決問題的目的，即套用AHP所要達到的目標。

中間層：它表示採用某種措施和政策來實現預定目標所涉及的中間環節，一般又分為策略層、約束層、準則層等。

最低層：表示解決問題的措施或政策(即方案)。

標明上一層因素與下一層因素之間的聯繫。 如果某個因素與下一層次所有因素均有聯繫， 那么稱這個因素與下一層次存在完全層次關係。有時存在不完全層次關係，即某個因素只與下一層次的部分因素有聯繫。 層次之間可以建立於層次。 於層次從屬於主層次的某個因素，它的因素與下一層次的因素有聯繫，但不形成獨立層次，層次結構模型往往用結構模型圖表示。

2.構造判斷矩陣

任何系統分析都以一定的信息為基礎。AHP的信息基礎主要是人們對每一層次各因素的相對重要性給出的判斷， 這些判斷用數值表示出來，寫成矩陣形式就是判斷矩陣。 判斷矩陣是AHP工作的出發點。構造判斷矩陣是AHP的關鍵一步。

判斷矩陣表示針對上一層次某因素而言， 本層次與之有關的各因素之間的相對重要性。【例如】

3.層次單排序

所謂層次單排序是指，根據判斷矩陣計算對於上一層某因素而言， 本層次與之有聯繫的因素的重要性次序的權值。 它是本層次所有因素相對上一層次而言的重要性進行排序的基礎。

層次單排序可以歸結為計算判斷矩陣的特徵根和特徵向量問題， 即對判斷矩陣B，計算滿足 BW =λmaxW

的特徵根與特徵向量，式中λmax為B的最大特徵根， W為對應於λmax的正規化特徵向量，W的分量Wi是相應因素單排序的權值。

為了檢驗矩陣的一致性，需要計算它的一致性指標CI，定義

CI=(λmax－n)/(n－1)

顯然，當判斷矩陣具有完全一致性時，CI=0。λmax－n愈大，CI愈大，矩陣的一致性愈差。為了檢驗判斷矩陣是否具有滿意的一致性， 需要將CI與平均隨機一致性指標RI進行比較。

4.層次總排序

利用同一層次中所有層次單排序的結果，就可以計算針對上一層次而言，本層次所有因素重要性的權值，這就是層次總排序。 層次總排序需要從上到下逐層順序進行，對於最高層下面的第二層，其層次單排序即為總排序。

5.一致性檢驗

所獲獎勵

[1] 2009年獲匹斯堡大學校長傑出研究獎

[2] 2008年獲INFORMS影響獎，運籌學和管理學研究協會獎勵其在AHP中的傑出貢獻。

[3] 2005年，當選美國國家工程院院士

[4] 2003年獲國際多準則學會金質獎

[5] 基於saaty的層次分析法理論，國際層次分析法協會建立，並先後在匹斯堡、華盛頓、溫哥華、天津、神戶、伯尼爾、巴厘島等地召開國際會議。

[6] 2000年獲金質獎獎勵，國際多準則決策協會獎勵其在決策中的貢獻

[7] 1998年當選為國際管理學會會員

[8] 1984年獲貝塔·伽瑪·西格瑪獎章

[9] 1982年，獲哥倫比亞聯合學院校友年度榮譽

[10] 1982年Thomas L. Saaty獎項設立，獎勵在數學和管理的最佳研究論文。

[11] 1977年美國管理科學協會獎勵其在管理科學實踐中的貢獻：蘇丹運輸計畫

[12] 1973年獲美國數學協會萊斯特福特獎，表彰其在四色理論中的出色貢獻

[13] 1970年當選西班牙國家科學院院士

[14] 1959年當選為美國科學發展協會會員

學術論文

近5年在《EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF OPERATIONAL RESEARCH》等期刊發表SCI論文14篇，引用73次。出版學術著作5部。出版關於AHP/ANP著作12部，關於AHP和領導決策方面的非技術性著作已被翻譯成幾種語言暢銷全球。

[1] Extending the Measurement of Tangibles to Intangibles, (with Mujgan Sagir), Int. J. of Informations Technology and Decision Making, Vol. 8, No. 1, pp. 7-27, 2009.

[2] Relative Measurement and Its Generalization in Decision Making; Why Pairwise Comparisons are Central in Mathematics for the Measurement of Intangible Factors The Analytic Hierarchy/Network Process, Royal Academy of Sciences, Spain, Series A. Mathematics, November, pp. 251-318, 2008

[3] Making decisions in hierarchic and network systems, (with Mariya Sodenkamp), Int. J. Applied Decision Sciences, Vol.1, No. 1, pp. 24-79, 2008.

[4] Who Won the 2008 Olympics? Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, Vol. 17, No, 4,pp.473-486, Dec. 2008.

[5] Synthesis of Complex Criteria Decision Making: A Case Towards a Consensus Agreement for a Middle East Conflict Resolution, (with J. Zoffer et al.) Group Decision and Negotiation, 17: 363-385, 2008.

[6] The Analytic Network Process, Iranian Journal of Operations Research, Vol.1 No.1 pp.1-27, 2008.

[7] The analytic hierarchy and analytic network measurement processes: Applications to decisions under Risk, European Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, Vol.1, No.1, pp. 122-196, 2008.

[8] Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Int.J. Services Sciences, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2008.

[9] Time Dependent Decision making; Dynamic Priorities In the AHP/ANP: Generalizing from Points to Functions and from Real to Complex Variables, Mathematical and computer Modelling, Vol. 46, No. 7-8, pp. 860-889, October 2007.

[10] Dispersion of Group Judgments, (with Luis Vargas), Mathematical and computer Modelling, Vol. 46, No. 7-8, pp. 918-925, October 2007.

[11] On the Invalidity of Fuzzifying Numerical Judgments in the Analytic Hierarchy Process, (with Liem T. Tran), Mathematical and computer Modelling, Vol. 46, No. 7-8, pp. 962-975, October 2007.

[12] Multi-decisions Decision-Making: In Addition to Wheeling and Dealing, our national Political Bodies Need a Formal Approach for Prioritization, Mathematical and computer Modelling, Vol. 46, No. 7-8, pp. 1001-1016, October 2007.

[13] The Analytic Hierarchy Process and Human Resource Allocation: Half the Story (with Kirti Peniwati and Jennifer Shang), Mathematical and computer Modelling, Vol. 46, No. 7-8, pp. 1041-1053, October 2007.

[14] The Analytic Hierarchy Process: How to Measure Intangibles in a Meaningful Way Side by Side with tangibles, Transactions from International Symposium on Quality Function Deployment, 19th Symposium, pp. 113-135, 2007.

[15] Group decision-making: Head-count versus intensity of preference,(with Jennifer Shang) Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 41, pp. 22-37, 2007.

[16] There is no Mathematical Validity for Using Fuzzy Number Crunching in the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, V0l. 15, No. 4, December 2006.

[17] What is AHP/ANP, Proceedings of the First Japanese Symposium on the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Meijo University, Nagoya, Japan, December, 2006, pp.3-50.

[18] The Unknown in Decision Making: What to do about it, European Journal of Operational Research, 174, 2006, 349-359, with M. Ozdemir.

[19] The Analytic Hierarchy Process: Wash Criteria Should not be Ignored, International Journal of Management and Decision Making, Vol. 7, Nos.2/3, 2006 with L. Vargas

[20] Rank from comparisons and from ratings in the analytic hierarchy/network processes, European Journal of Operational Research 168 (2006) 557-570.

[21] A framework for making a better decision (with Michael Niemira), Research Review, Vol. 13, No. 1, 2006.

[22] Making and Validating Complex Decisions with the AHP/ANP, Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, published at Tsinghua University, Beijing Vol. 14, No. 1, March, 2005, pages 1-36.

[23] The Possibility of Group Welfare Functions, Information Technology and Decision Making, Vol.4, No.2, 2005, pages 167-176, with L. Vargas.

[24] Los conflictos y la resolución de conflictos, Poliantea, Politécnico Grancolombiano, Bogotá, Colombia, No.2 July-December 2004.

[25] An Analytic Network Process model for financial-crisis forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 20, Issue 4, October-December 2004, Pages 573-587 with Michael P. Niemira.

[26] The Analytic Hierarchy Process in Medical Diagnosis, the Encyclopedia of Biostatistics, John Wiley and Sons, 2004.

[27] Automatic Decision-Making: Neural Firing and Response, Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, published at Tsinghua University, Beijing Vol. 13, No. 4, December, 2004, pages 385-404.

[28] Fundamentals of the Analytic Network Process: Multiple Networks with Benefits, Costs, Opportunities and Risks, Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, published at Tsinghua University, Beijing, Vol. 13, No. 3, September, 2004, pages 348-379.

[29] Fundamentals of the Analytic Network Process: Dependence and Feedback in Decision-Making with a Single Network, Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, published at Tsinghua University, Beijing, Vol. 13, No. 2, June, 2004, pages 129-157.

[30] Decision Making- The Analytic Hierarchy and Network Processes (AHP/ANP), Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering, published at Tsinghua University, Beijing, Vol. 13, No. 1, March 2004, pages 1-35.

[31] Rank from Comparisons and from Ratings in the Analytic Hierarchy/ Network Processes, European Journal of Operational Research, 168, 2006, pages 557-570.

[32] Why the Magic Number Seven Plus or Minus Two, Mathematical and Computer Modelling, 38, 2003 pages 233-244 (With M. Ozdemir)

[33] Theory of the Analytic Hierarchy and Analytic network process- Examples Part 2.2, The International Journal of Systems Research and Information Technologies, 2,2003.

[34] Time Dependent Decision-Making; Dynamic Priorities in the AHP/ANP, Generalizing from Points to Functions and From Real to Complex Variables, Proceedings of the 7th ISAHP Symposium on the AHP, Bali, Indonesia, August, 2003

[35] Theory of the Analytic hierarchy Process, Part 2.1, The International Journal of Systems Research and Information Technologies, 1,2003.

[36] Decision-making with the AHP: Why is the principal eigenvector necessary, European Journal of Operational Research 145 (2003) 85-9.

[37] Priorities as Dominance in Derived measurement: Invariance of the Principal Eigenvector, International Journal of Information Technology and Decision Making, Vol. 2, No. 2 (2003) 185-195 (With M. Ozdemir).

[38] Negative Priorities in the Analytic Hierarchy Process, Mathematical and Computer Modelling 37 (2003) 1063-1075 (With M. Ozdemir).

[39] The Allocation of Intangible Resources: The Analytic Hierarchy Process and Linear programming," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 37 (2003) 169-184. (With L. Vargas and K. Dellmann).

[40] How to Make and Justify a Decision: The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP); Part 1. Examples and Applications, The Journal of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, 2002, 1.

[41] Decision Making with the Analytic Hierarchy Process, The Iranian Academy of Sciences in their Journal, Scientia Iranica, Vol. 9, No. 3, July 2002.

[42] Forecasting the Resurgence of the US Economy in 2001: An Expert Judgment Approach, Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 36(2002) 77-91, (with Andrew R.Blair, Robert Nachtmann, and Rozann Whitaker)

[43] Wrote preface for the book, Modernes Entscheiden mit AHP und Expert Choice, by Oliver Meixner and Rainer Haas of Vienna, Austria, published in German in 2001

[44] "In the Brain Ratio Scales Are Critical for Modeling Neural Synthesis," Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms (ICANNGA), Academy of Sciences, The Czech Republic, Prague, April 22-25, 2001

[45] "Hypermatrix of the Brain," Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithms (ICANNGA), Academy of Sciences, The Czech Republic, Prague, April 22-25, 2001

[46] "Deriving the AHP 1-9 Scale from First Principles," ISAHP 2001 Proceedings, Bern, Switzerland, August, 2-4, 2001

[47] "Decision Making with the AHP: Why is the Principal Eigenvector Necessary?," ISAHP 2001 Proceedings, Bern, Switzerland, August, 2-4, 2001

[48] "Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process (ANP) and Its "Super Decisions" Software: The National Missile Defense (NMD) Example," ISAHP 2001 Proceedings, Bern, Switzerland, August, 2-4, 2001

[49] "The Decision by the US Congress on China's Trade Status: A Multicriteria Analysis," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 35(2001) 243-252, (with Yeonmin Cho).

[50] "Ratio Scales are Essential in Neural Synthesis," Invited Lecture, Academy of Sciences, Prague, The Czech Republic, Springer Verlag, to appear April 2001.

[51] "Hypermatrix of the Brain," Invited Lecture, Academy of Sciences, Prague, The Czech Republic, Springer Verlag, to appear April 2001.

[52] "Como Tomar Una Decisions y," published in a new magazine on decision making in Argentina: Decisiones: Toma de Decisiones, January 2000, Vol. I, No.1, Buenos Aires, Argentina.

教材與論著

[1] Principia Mathematica Decernendi: Mathematical Principles of Decision Making, RWS Publications, 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 2010.

[2] The Encyclicon Volume 2 (with Brady Cillo), RWS Publications, 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 2008.

[3] Group Decision Making: Drawing Out and Reconciling Differences (with Kirti Peniwati), RWS Publications, 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 2008.

[4] Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process: Economic, Political, Social and Technological Applications with benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks, (with L.G. Vargas), 2006, Springer's International Series.

[5] Theory and Applications of the Analytic Network Process, RWS Publications, 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 2005.

[6] The Encyclicon (with M. Ozdemir), RWS Publications, 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 2004.

[7] Creative Thinking, Problem Solving & Decision Making, RWS Publications, 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 2001.

[8] Models, Methods, Concepts and Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (with L.G. Vargas), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Boston, 2000.

[9] The Brain, Unraveling the Mystery of How it Works: The Neural Network Process, RWS Publications, 4922 Ellsworth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15213, 2000.

主要兼職

是下列組織的成員：美國工程院、美國數學學會、美國數學協會、美國運籌學會、國際戰略研究所、世界未來學會、國際和平科學學會、國際管理學會、貝塔·伽瑪·西格瑪組織。

擔任下列8家學術雜誌的副編輯：

Socio-Economic Planning Sciences

The International Journal of Systems

Measurement and Decisions

The Journal of Mathematical Modeling

Information Technology and Decision Makingr

Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis、Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering (JSSSE)

International Journal of Organizational Analysis

Applied Mathematical Letters.